Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BCH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 0.004801 0.005063 0.005332 0.005629 0.005951 0.006287 0.006666
2024-12-22 0.004309 0.004693 0.005105 0.005584 0.006126 0.006723 0.007436
2024-12-29 0.003957 0.004400 0.004891 0.005478 0.006165 0.006951 0.007925
2025-01-05 0.003698 0.004179 0.004724 0.005393 0.006198 0.007145 0.008358
2025-01-12 0.003538 0.004056 0.004654 0.005403 0.006329 0.007447 0.008924
2025-01-19 0.003293 0.003815 0.004427 0.005208 0.006188 0.007399 0.009037
2025-01-26 0.003187 0.003733 0.004384 0.005228 0.006311 0.007678 0.009577
2025-02-02 0.003153 0.003735 0.004440 0.005371 0.006590 0.008168 0.010421
2025-02-09 0.003025 0.003615 0.004336 0.005303 0.006589 0.008284 0.010759
2025-02-16 0.002932 0.003531 0.004275 0.005284 0.006649 0.008481 0.011216
2025-02-23 0.002836 0.003441 0.004200 0.005242 0.006672 0.008625 0.011602
2025-03-02 0.002795 0.003419 0.004210 0.005313 0.006851 0.008992 0.012334
2025-03-09 0.002719 0.003351 0.004160 0.005301 0.006917 0.009206 0.012861
2025-03-16 0.002636 0.003270 0.004089 0.005259 0.006937 0.009354 0.013295
2025-03-23 0.002538 0.003165 0.003983 0.005161 0.006872 0.009370 0.013516
2025-03-30 0.002452 0.003075 0.003894 0.005083 0.006829 0.009416 0.013786
2025-04-06 0.002404 0.003033 0.003867 0.005092 0.006916 0.009662 0.014401
2025-04-13 0.002292 0.002901 0.003713 0.004912 0.006710 0.009440 0.014209
2025-04-20 0.002254 0.002869 0.003696 0.004930 0.006805 0.009697 0.014855
2025-04-27 0.002255 0.002891 0.003756 0.005062 0.007078 0.010252 0.016067
2025-05-04 0.002194 0.002824 0.003687 0.004999 0.007045 0.010305 0.016377
2025-05-11 0.002149 0.002780 0.003649 0.004982 0.007082 0.010475 0.016913
2025-05-18 0.002101 0.002729 0.003598 0.004943 0.007083 0.010582 0.017337